Submitted to a Candid World

Update: Barack Obama loses Indiana, 49.1 % to 50.9%, a narrow margin in a primary which was expected to give Hillary a 5-10% margin. While on the numbers, this is fairly bland (the candidates split the delegates evenly), the blow dealt to Hillary Clinton’s expectations is serious. And politics is all about expectations. My earlier, blasé prediction about tonight’s events may prove wrong.

Many scattered points to make. First, I’d like to congratulate Barack Obama for pulling in to an effective tie at the last minute in Indiana. This most recent success, coupled with polls suggesting that the Wright fiasco may have been overblown, bode well for Barack as he moves on to the race’s end game. More importantly, though, it’s time to build the party, and the evidence still suggests that we’ll have to play dirty in the general election. Let’s make our peace with that fact and do it.

On Barack Obama’s recent successes, apparently people are not themselves concerned about the Wright/Obama connection, but are concerned about its effect in November. To me, these data suggest that the Wright issue goes to that nebulous quality - electability - which only matters to you when you perceive that it matters to others. Perhaps we’ve overthought this primary season. Wouldn’t be the first time.

Moving on, while Hillary thinks it’s time to move on and continue her campaign - “now it is on to West Virginia, Kentucky and Oregon, where people are eager to have their voices heard” - I think now is the time for the party to pick a side. Luckily, the internet agrees with me (once, twice…), so let’s see.

And a coda. I do not lightly lightly make suggestions that Democrats use disingenuous campaign tactics, but the fact that Limbaugh is still trying to corruptly influence the primary proves that we cannot play nice, and expect to win. It’s time to pick a side, stick by it, build the party, and play dirty, so that we can later have the opportunity to place nice: “I must study Politicks and War, that my sons may have liberty to study Mathematicks and Philosophy.”

Let’s get on message, and stay on message: John Roberts and Samuel Alito are the activists. Not Stevens, not Breyer, not Souter, not Ginsburg. As Justice Breyer put it, regarding the new conservative majority: “It is not often in law that so few have so quickly changed so much.”

Apparently McCain is taking his free time to pander to his base, arguing against Obama’s stance against the confirmation of Chief Justice John Roberts, and excoriating Hillary & Obama, along with presumably all other liberals, for favoring an “activist” judiciary, which apparently seeks to subvert the law, co-opting it into a liberal political machine. Who’s really co-opted the court? Let’s stop and think. Over the past year, the Roberts Court has…

• Almost overruled Roe v. Wade, sub silentio, by allowing legislatures to disregard the health of women when banning abortion procedures, upsetting a case not two years old, on the basis of sham science;
• Invalidated bipartisan campaign finance reform, while pretending that it did no such thing;
• Ended affirmative action implemented by a municipal legislative body in good-faith compliance with pre-existing federal law, and;
• Showed signs of ending 80+ years of allowing regulation of guns.

Who’s the “activist judge,” now? You may disagree with the policy of liberal jurists, but they are no more “activist” - and indeed, are arguably less so - than their conservative counterparts. This issue needs to be part of the election year discourse.

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Time to get in gear, buddy. Nothing remarkable will happen today. All eyes - and all pressure - should be on Howard Dean to wrap this puppy up in an amicable way.

If you’re hoping that tonight’s primaries in Indiana and North Carolina will change anything in the Democratic nomination, I would hope the answer is yes, but I cannot imagine that will be the result. Obama is expected to sweep North Carolina, by a large margin, and despite leading in some polls, most consider Indiana a toss-up. So let’s consider North Carolina a given, and speculate on the results of Indiana.  Any way you cut it, Indiana will not be a dealbreaker. (more…)

Small warning: this post represents the views of Ames, and probably Tim. But, it doesn’t represent a new contributor we’ve just added.

For years, I’ve defended Hillary Clinton as a good Democrat, worthy to be the next President. While I still think she’s better than McCain, she has entirely lost my vote for the primaries. Watch this YouTube clip to see why:

I recently posted about the tendency of American politicians to, when confronted with proof that their policies are wrong, decry the “experts” as “elitist” and stick to their guns on principle, seemingly arguing that objective reality is subject to their votes or vetoes. I have attributed this tendency more often to conservative politicians hoping to spin away the truth, and also leveled the accusation at creationists, the world’s most egregious factual relativists. Well, not so, or at least not exclusively. Now Hillary Clinton has joined the ranks of those who attribute well founded expert opinion to the “elites,” in an effort to dispel it. (more…)